Cornwall firms face a make-or-break end to 2026, says Truro adviser

If your business is counting on Christmas to balance the books, a Truro-based insolvency specialist has a warning you might want to hear first.

The latest government figures show there were 1,882 corporate insolvencies in England and Wales in September. That’s 3.6% fewer than in August (1,953) and 4.6% fewer than September 2025 (1,973). On paper, an improvement. But Andy McGill, a restructuring and insolvency partner at Azets, which has an office in Truro, says the dip hides a tougher picture for many businesses across the South West.

“September is typically when the true picture of the summer trading period emerges, and where business owners and management teams decide whether they can keep going or need to close the doors,” he said.

What’s really behind the September figures

According to Andy, the monthly fall comes down to fewer administrations. Those numbers had been inflated recently after more than 250 connected companies in the real estate sector went into administration between March and August this year.

Other measures are heading the other way. Compulsory liquidations have risen for the fourth month in a row, reaching the second highest figure of the year, as creditors in both the public and private sector chase debts. And Creditors’ Voluntary Liquidations remain high.

“Directors continue to run out of fight and funds after years of tough trading conditions,” Andy said.

He added that September is also when HMRC and other creditors get back to chasing what they’re owed, as the holidays end and court time returns to normal.

“Despite the monthly fall in insolvencies, this September marked the end of a chapter rather than a change of season for many businesses as the economic alarm bells continue to sound.”

Costs, fuel and a colder Christmas

Rising costs remain the biggest problem, Andy said. Higher wages and material prices have squeezed margins, in many cases to the point of distress.

He pointed to fuel prices staying high because of the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, alongside rising energy bills, with no relief in sight. Vacancies are at a 12-year low, he said, because many businesses simply can’t afford to hire.

“With Christmas on the horizon, a number of firms will be hoping for an end of year boost to their finances, but in the current climate it’s hard to see where that will come from,” he said. “It could be that the final three months of this year are the final three months of trading for some.”

As the weather turns colder, he expects households to tighten their belts further before Christmas. That cuts disposable income and lands as another blow for businesses that rely on discretionary spending.

The sectors under most pressure

Andy picked out three areas in particular:

• Retail: a rise in sales over the summer has been blunted by higher energy bills and wages.
• Construction: still struggling with a shortage of new work, rising material costs and late payments.
• Property: held back by a stagnant market, falling prices, high debt levels and rising borrowing costs.

He said businesses will be hoping the Chancellor offers some breathing space at the Budget this month, even if that simply means no new taxes rather than any reliefs.

“Right now, firms are feeling the pressures of six years of rising outgoings and economic and geopolitical volatility, and any further increases in expenses could tip more into insolvency.”

The warning signs to look out for

Andy’s advice to anyone worried about their business is to get help early. These are some of the signs he says point to a firm that is in financial distress, or heading that way:

• Delays in paying invoices or taxes
• Shrinking cashflow
• Mounting stock levels

If those sound familiar, he says management teams should seek advice before the problem becomes more serious.

“We know it’s a hard conversation to have, but starting it when the signs of financial distress first start showing themselves gives you more time, more options and a better chance of turning your situation around than if you’d waited till the issues became more severe and potentially less salvageable.”