Budget day in Cornwall: what’s already known before Healey speaks

If you heat your home with oil or drive for work, some of today’s Budget has already landed. The rest, including the new minimum wage, arrives at around 12.30pm, when John Healey stands up in the Commons to deliver his first Budget as Chancellor.

Several measures were announced in the days running up to the speech, and more have been widely reported. Here is what’s known so far, what’s still only expected, and the parts people in Cornwall may want to keep an eye on.

What has already been announced

The Government confirmed a batch of smaller measures on Tuesday, which the Chancellor has described as giving families “breathing space” with everyday costs.

Tariffs off around 100 items

Import tariffs are being removed on around 100 food items and other goods, including baked beans, garlic, gherkins, marmalade and boiled sweets. The BBC reports the savings could reach up to £21 a year for a household. The Treasury is due to publish the full list today.

Two items on that list matter more than most in rural areas. Tariffs are also coming off kerosene, which the Government says is aimed at households that rely on heating oil, and off fertiliser, which is aimed at farmers.

Mileage rates for work journeys

The 55p-per-mile tax-free rate for work journeys up to 10,000 miles is being made permanent. Above 10,000 miles, the rate rises from 25p to 35p a mile.

Carers and new dads

Carer’s Allowance is changing so that people who earn a little over the limit no longer lose the whole payment at once. A taper will replace the current cut-off, but not until 2030.

Self-employed fathers are also set to get two weeks of paternity pay for the first time.

Why heating oil matters in Cornwall

Fewer homes in Cornwall are on mains gas than in most of the country. Figures in Cornwall Council‘s draft housing decarbonisation strategy put it at 49% of homes, compared with 74% across England and Wales. Oil and LPG heat around one in five Cornish homes.

That’s why the kerosene change, and any wider help with energy costs announced today, may be felt more here than in a city. VAT on household electricity has already been cut from 5% to zero since 1 October, which the Government estimates saves an average household about £45 a year. Gas still carries VAT.

What’s expected but not yet confirmed

A number of other measures have been reported ahead of the speech. None is official until the Chancellor announces it.

Fuel duty

The BBC understands fuel duty will be frozen again, with the existing 5p discount staying in place. For a county where many people have no choice but to drive, that is one of the figures worth watching.

Minimum wage

The Times has reported that the National Living Wage for those aged 21 and over will rise by 3.9%, from £12.71 to £13.20 an hour. The rate for 18 to 20-year-olds is reported to rise by the same percentage, from £10.85 to around £11.27. That would be a smaller jump for younger workers than in recent years. With so many jobs in Cornwall tied to hospitality and seasonal work, the final figures will matter to workers and local businesses alike.

Other reported measures

Several other measures have been widely reported but not confirmed:

• the surcharge on bank profits is said to be under consideration for a rise
• more than £1bn is expected for social and affordable housing
• around £285m is expected as initial funding for mayors and regional leaders as they take on more money and powers

The full picture will only be clear once the Chancellor sits down and the Budget documents are published.

What’s been ruled out

Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise the rates of income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT still stands. Together those three taxes bring in around 60% of all tax receipts, so any money the Chancellor needs to raise will have to come from elsewhere.

The tourism question

One issue hangs over Cornwall more than most. On 10 September, the Government confirmed that mayors and leaders of Foundation Strategic Authorities in England will be given the power to charge an overnight visitor levy, set as a percentage of the cost of a stay.

During a visit to Cornwall in August, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he was open to giving Cornwall the power to introduce a levy as part of a devolution agreement, according to trade magazine The Caterer. He also said he was looking to the Budget to see what more could be done to support hospitality.

Not everyone is keen. Earlier this week, Cornwall Visitor Alliance sent the Chancellor its own wish list for the county’s tourism businesses, warning against further taxation and asking for help with business rates and VAT.

A 20% cut to business rates for pubs, social clubs and live music venues in England has already been announced, starting from April 2027.

When to watch

The Chancellor is due to begin speaking at around 12.30pm. The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its updated forecasts for the economy at the same time, and the full set of Budget documents follows shortly after.

Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith has dismissed this week’s early announcements as an insult to families. John Healey has been open about the size of the package. He told the BBC the measures would help “around the margins”.

“None of this is going to change the world,” he said.